On Sunday Rory McIlroy finished second at the 2023 US Open. By almost any measure, that represents a fine four days of golf and the Northern Irish star earned a cool $2.16m for his troubles. He’s ranked the third-best golfer on the planet at the time of writing and in terms of wins at the majors, only three active players have more than his four.
But Rory’s last win at a major came way back in 2014 at the USPGA Championship. It was his second consecutive major too, as he had won the Open Championship earlier in the season and so he headed to the 2015 US Masters looking to join the game’s best-of-the-best by completing a career Grand Slam. He flirted with a serious challenge on the final day at Augusta over eight years ago but in the end finished second, four shots adrift of Jordan Spieth.
It would have taken a brave punter to bet on Rory still being stuck on four majors ahead of the 2023 Open Championship but that is the situation we see. Europe’s superstar golfer has finished inside the top eight in six of his last seven majors; since his 2014 USPGA triumph he has ended within the top five (including ties) 10 times. And yet that fifth major remains tantalisingly out of his grasp. So, will Rory ever win another big one?
Will Rory McIlroy Win a Fifth Major Championship?
Well, since his last triumph he has tried, and putting it bluntly, failed, 33 times to add a fifth major to his CV. Those are clearly shocking numbers for a man who won four out of his first 25 but the Holywood man is still only 34 years old. He probably has between five and 10 years left at or near the peak of his powers, plus potentially another 10 where he might still have it within him to land the biggest events if things go his way.
Rory McIlroy still has not won a major since the 2014 PGA Championship 😳
He has not won in his last 33 majors. pic.twitter.com/UmgDWxZmwc
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 19, 2023
Statistically one would feel he will, on balance, claim another major. Should he do that and get past what can only be viewed as a mental block, there has to be a chance that the floodgates would open. The sixth, seventh and maybe more could follow soon after the fifth and if they do, his place among the all-time greats would be very much assured.
Only five players have ever won the career Grand Slam, which is to say they have won each of the majors at least once. Given McIlroy has seven top 10s in his last 10 appearances at Augusta, one has to feel he will earn himself a green jacket eventually, even if the tough greens do not necessarily suit his strengths. Moreover, if he could get to seven majors, which we really can’t rule out, only six players would have even tasted victory in the big ones more often. Those six are Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Walter Hagen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player and Tom Watson, which wouldn’t be bad company for Rory to join!
But of course it is all well and good us saying that he should and could and might win another major. It is quite another thing for him to go out there and actually do it. On balance, we think he is too good not to land another one and if he keeps putting himself in the mix, eventually things will fall his way. He is so frequently in with a chance on the final day that sooner or later he will surely either get the slice of luck he needs to get over the line, or will just have one of those days where everything clicks and he blows the opposition away.
Which Major Gives Him the Best Chance?
The table below shows how the Northern Irishman has got on in each of the four majors.
Major | Wins | Second | Third | Top 5 | Top 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
US Masters | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
US Open | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Open Championship | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
USPGA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
Note that the stats for the top five and top 10 include those higher finishes also listed. What this table shows us is that McIlroy is very good at all four of the biggest events in the sport. Whilst he has two wins at the USPGA, he has finished second more often (albeit just once each) at all of the other three tournaments. Equally, whilst the Masters is often perceived as his worst tournament, he only has more top 5s at Open Championship.
The Open was perhaps the major many experts thought he would struggle most at and, indeed, he has more top 10s at each of the other three big ones. But then only at the USPGA does Rory have as many top-three finishes to his name. In short, he undoubtedly has the game to contest at any course, anywhere in the world, and could certainly win his fifth major at any of the four possible tournaments.
Summary of Rory’s Major Wins
Moving from the future and what might be, let us now very briefly look back to all that McIlroy has achieved. For, even if he does end his career with four majors and the only green jacket in his wardrobe is one his mum buys him from Amazon, there is no doubt he has been a wonderful player. And we should not forget what he has achieved, with more wins on the PGA Tour than Greg Norman, three WGC successes, a win at the Players Championship and three wins in the FedEx Cup. Moreover, he has topped the European Order of Merit four times and has been ranked number one in the world on multiple occasions.
- 2011 US Open – wins first major by massive eight shots on a score of 16 under par.
- 2012 USPGA Championship – score of minus 13 again sees him romp home by eight shots.
- 2014 Open Championship – wins Open at Royal Liverpool, seeing off Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia by two shots (-17).
- 2014 USPGA Championship – an era of domination surely beckons(!) as Rory wins consecutive majors, bettering Phil Mickelson by a shot on 16 under par.