While Europe may have won a riveting Ryder Cup in 2025, there can be no denying that it’s the Americans who have dominated golf’s major championship scene. Across the last three years, natives of the Land of the Free have combined to win ten of the 12 majors on offer, including sweeping all four in 2024 for the first time since 1982.
Undisputed world number one Scottie Scheffler has been the engine behind the American dominance, claiming three of those titles, with the bookies making him a favourite for further honours in 2026. The 29-year-old is a frontrunner for all four of the majors set to take place next year, as well as being a 1.80 shot to end the next campaign with at least one major added to his already overflowing trophy cabinet.
The use of a certain popular betting tool shows just how far clear the experts think Scheffler is ahead of his competition. The popular implied odds probability calculator shows that Scheffler has a mighty 55.56% chance of claiming the fifth major title of his career in 2026, as opposed to just 38.17% for McIlroy and a paltry 30.77% for fellow American Bryson DeChambeau. Looking at this kind of probability calculator tool crystallises precisely how impressive Scheffler’s position really is.
So, with Europe’s finest in the midst of a barren spell unlike any other, which of the continent’s players have the best chance of claiming a major next year, taking the fight to the Americans in the process? Let’s take a look.
Rory McIlroy
You won’t find a narrative in golf, perhaps in all of sports, richer than the tale of Rory McIlroy’s Masters redemption. For over a decade, Augusta’s finishing stretch became his crucible, a final exam taunting him every April. Ever since that monumental collapse of 2011, the Northern Irishman had a ghost haunting him, and the jinx expanded to all four majors as opposed to just Augusta.
This year marked the beginning of McIlroy’s 11th without adding to his haul of four major titles. The only one he hadn’t claimed was the Masters, but let’s face it, the 36-year-old would have taken any of the four, anything to end his epic drought.
But for the first time in years, McIlroy began the year by suddenly finding his footing at Augusta. He headed into the final day with a two-stroke lead, and he very nearly collapsed once again after finishing tied with fellow Brit Justin Rose. In the end, though, McIlroy would banish the ghost that haunted him, winning a playoff and securing that elusive green jacket.
What happens when a great champion is unshackled? We’re finding out. Since finally completing his career Grand Slam, McIlroy’s metrics have soared into rarefied air: leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green for an unprecedented fourth straight year, averaging 320 yards off the tee, and, at long last, a dramatic surge with the putter, gaining over 1.2 strokes per round. The technical scepticism that dogged him for years has crumbled, replaced by cold precision and a swagger reminiscent of his 2014 peak.
Yet, what elevates the post-Masters McIlroy is not just the numbers. It’s the palpable sense of liberation. The weight is gone and in its place, a player whose appetite for more is undimmed. Whether defending at Augusta or stalking Shinnecock Hills at the U.S. Open, there’s a ferocity to his intent, a sense that records are now measured targets, not untouchable lore.
Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm knows how to channel chaos into opportunity. He may have divided opinion with his blockbuster move to LIV Golf, but in 2025, the results did all the talking: clinching the individual LIV crown and roaring back into the PGA Championship fray with a top-ten finish. There’s no adjustment period in Rahm’s dictionary, just relentless adaptability.
His DNA as a major contender is clear. With two career-defining majors and still only 31, Rahm is Europe’s emotional bellwether in big moments. Ask those who crunch the data: his approach play is top-five in the world, fuelling an iron game that turns Sunday pressure into birdie chances. The rest? Pure Spanish defiance. A short game that boasts an elite 65% up-and-down rate. A putting touch that freezes the nerves of rivals. Rahm’s volatility may get headlines, but beneath the surface is an analytical craftsman who, in 2026, will be even better armed, especially as LIV ditches 54 holes for a full-wattage majors-style format.
With The Open returning to Royal Birkdale, a links theatre that rewards vision and violence in equal measure, expect Rahm’s artistry, fire, and newfound off-course balance to converge. Chess, not checkers and the board may finally tip in Europe’s direction.
Tommy Fleetwood
No narrative on European hopes is complete without Tommy Fleetwood: the game’s most reliable artisan in adversity. Fleetwood may lack the pyrotechnics of Rahm or McIlroy, but few handle the crucible of major championship weekends as deftly as England’s own. Runner-up heartbreak at the 2018 U.S. Open and 2019 Open stoked fire; his T3 at last year’s Masters and his victory in Dubai stoke belief.
Age and experience, rather than foes, have become his allies. As the 2026 schedule hands him links and classic setups, Fleetwood is no longer content to be golf’s nearly man. He’s hunting legacy, silverware, and proof that blue and gold can weather even the fiercest storm.