Aaron Rai’s victory at the USPGA Championship back in May will have given any number of golfers hope that they too can upset the odds and claim a major championship. The third major of the year will start on the 18th of June, with things coming to a head at Shinnecock Hills on the 21st.
There isn’t a lot of golf to be played between now and then, and potentially even less for Rory McIlroy, who recently reiterated his intention to “pick and choose (his) spots”. The Northern Irishman opted to play in the Memorial Tournament but is increasingly focused on the big four events nowadays, plus the Ryder Cup and a few other select tournaments.
As ever, McIlroy will be among the favourites when the game’s greatest golfers tee it up at the links-style Shinnecock Hills on Long Island, New York. It will be the sixth time the brilliant design has hosted the US Open. The first of the previous five came way back in 1896, but more recently it has hosted the tournament in 1986, 1995, 2004 and 2018. Brooks Koepka won that most recent edition and he will fancy his chances again, although of course he will face stiff opposition from Rory, Scottie Scheffler and all the rest.
A Look at 2018
| Position | Player | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | Par Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooks Koepka | 75 | 66 | 72 | 68 | +1 (281) |
| 2 | Tommy Fleetwood | 75 | 66 | 78 | 63 | +2 (282) |
| 3 | Dustin Johnson | 69 | 67 | 77 | 70 | +3 (283) |
| 4 | Patrick Reed | 73 | 72 | 71 | 68 | +4 (284) |
| 5 | Tony Finau | 75 | 72 | 66 | 72 | +5 (285) |
It remains to be seen just how the course will be set up at Shinnecock but by and large much will be the same as it was in 2018. The weather might play a big part in things but the tournament is a little far away at present to make any predictions about that with real confidence.
Koepka defended the title he had won in 2017 with a +1 total of 281. He began with a 75 on Thursday, but a 66 saw him make the cut before rounds of 72 and 68 were enough to see off the fast-finishing Tommy Fleetwood by a shot. Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed and Tony Finau completed the top five places. With Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson also in the top 10, the importance of ball-striking and iron play becomes further apparent.
Distance helps everywhere but it is not a huge factor at the US Open generally, and certainly not here. Koepka is no slouch but few of the really big hitters did especially well in 2018. Penal rough, as at every US Open, and tight greens mean that accuracy is far more important. The ability to control ball flight and play well in the wind is also often important. While wind is not 100% guaranteed, it would be very unusual for it not to whip up at some stage.
Corey Pavin, who won in 1995, and Retief Goosen, who triumphed at Shinnecock in 2004, certainly fit that sort of profile. Goosen won with a score of four under, while for Pavin even par was enough, so anyone who avoids big mistakes will really be in with a chance here.
Look Beyond the Big Two
As ever, Scottie and Rory top the early betting for the US Open, priced at odds of 9/2 and 13/2 respectively. Both are so good that they are more than capable of winning a golf tournament at any venue, anywhere in the world. However, Shinnecock Hills is certainly not the sort of course they would choose to compete at. Rory’s distance will only be of use if his accuracy is on point and Scheffler would prefer not to have to shape the ball too much.
The nature of links golf, especially if the wind blows, means that this tournament is a little less predictable than others. Luck could play more of a part than usual and that means that the dominance of the game’s best players may be less evident.
Looking at outsiders could be the way to go, but certainly the likes of Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Robert MacIntyre are worth thinking about due to their links pedigree and ability in the wind.
Last year, JJ Spaun was a somewhat surprising winner, shooting one under at Oakmont, another course steeped in US Open history. He seems unlikely to join that select group of players, including Koepka, to have defended a US Open title. But just who will prevail? We can’t say, but we can’t wait to find out.