The 125th US Open gets underway on Thursday the 12th of June, with historic Oakmont in Pennsylvania hosting the event. This will be the third major of the season after Rory McIlroy finally completed the career Grand Slam by winning the US Masters and Scottie Scheffler showed he was well and truly back to his best after his bizarre hand injury by winning the US PGA at Quail Hollow.
The relative ease with which the world number one claimed his third major, plus the fact that McIlroy could only scrape into the top 50, rather put paid to the idea that the major floodgates would open for the Northern Irishman. Many argued that his win at Augusta, which simultaneously ended his long major drought and also landed the career Slam, would mean he would dominate the Big Four events in the years ahead and get back to the sort of form that brought him four majors in four years a decade or so ago.
Rory may well keep winning big events and could certainly play with less pressure and more freedom. But even if he does, the golfing landscape is very different now compared to when he seemed capable of winning 10 or more majors. There is a “new” player on the scene that wasn’t around back then and it is no longer true that if Rory plays his best golf he will win.
Top of the Tree
Scottie Scheffler has shown over the past two years that he is undeniably the main man right now. He first ascended to the top of the world rankings in March 2022 and stayed there for 30 weeks. A one-week spell followed in February 2023, then a longer stint of four weeks that March. However, since May 2023, Scheffler has been sitting pretty at number one in the official rankings and nobody seems capable of knocking him off his perch.
Current Top 10 Ranked Golfers
| Rank | Player | Country |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | United States |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | Northern Ireland |
| 3 | Xander Schauffele | United States |
| 4 | Collin Morikawa | United States |
| 5 | Justin Thomas | United States |
| 6 | Russell Henley | United States |
| 7 | Sepp Straka | Austria |
| 8 | Ludvig Åberg | Sweden |
| 9 | Hideki Matsuyama | Japan |
| 10 | Bryson DeChambeau | United States |
Despite the injury to his hand, sustained at Christmas, which needed surgery and caused him to miss about a month of golf, his current lead at the top of the rankings is huge. And that is despite Rory having a stellar 2025 that has seen him win at Pebble Beach, then claim The Players, and also land the Masters. McIlroy has been brilliant, but even so, Scheffler holds a ranking score almost equal to the Northern Irishman’s and world number three Xander Schauffele’s combined.
Scheffler Back with a Bang and Better Than Ever?
The world number one took a little time to settle following his injury and the rest of the top players must have secretly hoped that maybe he wouldn’t quite be the same player – at least for a while. He was truly dominant in 2024, winning nine times, including a second major, an Olympic gold and the FedEx Cup. He won an insane amount of money and an equally incredible number of ranking points and was drawing comparisons with Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods.
Few players on tour would wish injury upon a fellow pro but we’re sure some were hoping that Scheffler’s comeback might be a slow one. Whilst he did struggle a little by his sky-high standards, he still tied for third at the Genesis, tied for second in Houston and finished fourth at the Masters.
But he really hit top gear at the Byron Nelson, where he waltzed to victory by a massive eight shots. He backed that up by winning at Quail Hollow, was T4 at the Charles Schwab and then won again last time out at the Memorial. That gives him form figures of 1, T4, 1, 1, T8, 4, T2. As was the case last year, when Scheffler plays badly, he’s top 10, when he is doing ok, he is in contention or wins, and when he’s putting well and generally on it, he simply walks away with the victories.
This all begs the question, can anyone stop Scheffler at Oakmont?
US Open Favourites
Unsurprisingly Scheffler heads the betting and his return of 15 PGA Tour wins over the last three and a quarter years bears comparison with the two men considered to be the greatest of all time, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. The world number one Scheffler has never won the US Open but there isn’t a course in the world that his style of play isn’t suited to and he has all the tools needed to triumph at Oakmont.
He is priced at 11/4 and is the clear favourite. Given the rate at which he has been winning events, including the very biggest ones, many may argue that 11/4 offers great value. That said, he tied for 41st at this tournament in 2024 and missed the cut in 2019. But that has to be balanced with fine results in 2021, 2022 and 2023, which saw him go T7, T2, 3.
McIlroy is the obvious pick to stop the Scheffler juggernaut and is priced at 15/2, though 6/1 with some firms. His first major came at the US Open and was an eight-shot romp, but he missed the cut in 2016, the last time Oakmont staged this tournament.
A little further back is Bryson DeChambeau, at 8/1, and the controversial, though increasingly popular American will fancy his chances. Another LIV player, Jon Rahm, is next, at 12/1, and the Spaniard could be one to consider. Oakmont is a really tough test of golf but the greens are especially testing and Rahm is one of the best around with the putter.
Patrick Cantlay (33/1), Tyrell Hatton (50/1) and Jordan Spieth (50/1) are three other contenders who might have the game to tame Oakmont, especially on the greens; though, as their odds suggest, they are not among the very favourites. Another alternative at similar odds is Irishman Shane Lowry and he is a really interesting proposition and could possibly upset Scheffler.
McIlroy’s close friend has two top 10s at the US Open, including when he was tied for second in 2016 at Oakmont. Good for in recent months has seen him rise to 12th in the world rankings, just shy of his all-time high of 10th.
Ultimately it is going to take one of two unlikely occurrences for someone to stop Scheffler. With his current form and the calm, self-assured demeanour he brings to the course, it is going to take an out-of-this-world performance by a rival to get the better of him. Alternatively, the best player in the world would have to have a shocker … and we don’t see that happening any time soon.