After almost two years of waiting, the 2025 Ryder Cup is now almost upon us. Bethpage Black, on Long Island, New York, will host as Europe bids to become the first team to claim victory away from home since they did so in 2012. Back then, they had to rely on the so-called Miracle of Medinah, roaring back after seeming out of things after the first two days.
To find another away win, we have to go back to 2004, when Europe again won in the United States, this time at Oakland Hills. That was a resounding victory too, coming by 18.5 points to 9.5, but the fact we have seen just two home teams beaten in over 20 years – and one accounted for by a miracle! – illustrates what a tough task Luke Donald and his men face.
The bookies are equally unequivocal about the matter, with the hosts widely available at odds of 4/6, Donald’s troops priced at 6/4, and the draw offered at 12/1. In 44 matches, there have been just two ties, most recently in 1989, while the record since the match became Europe versus USA reads one in 22.
Why is Home Advantage so Important?
Some may question whether home advantage counts for much in this event. After all, there is no referee or judge to be influenced by a crowd. Equally, all of the European team play regularly in America, while the record of US golfers in European events is good enough to suggest that playing there isn’t an issue.
Modern travel means that getting to the venue is not a negative for the away players either (many of the Europeans are based in the US anyway). Lastly, golf is not generally considered to be a sport where the crowd is a big factor. Spectators are normally less partisan and less vocal than in sports such as football or rugby.
However, the stats show that the home team does indeed have a significant advantage. Ignoring the period before European players were admitted, and looking at the 19 editions of the Ryder Cup since Europe first won in 1985, there has been just one away win for the USA. That came in 1993, while the European team has only won four times in the States in the same period.
What’s more, the home team has often been victorious by a wide margin, with all victories since Medinah coming by five points or more. There are two main reasons why being on home soil helps. First, and perhaps most important, is the incredible atmosphere the local fans generate.
“Golf” might generally feature gentile, broadly neutral fans, but the Ryder Cup is totally different. In preparation for the 2025 Ryder Cup, the European side has been using VR headsets to simulate the abuse and hostility they expect to face at Bethpage. Many Europeans will make the trip, but they will be hugely outnumbered, and the atmosphere will be spicy.
The other big factor is that the hosts get to choose the course and the set-up, and generally are more familiar with it, often having played there more often. Europe tend to favour tighter, more strategic courses, with Le Golf National in 2018 a classic example. The hosts also have the advantage of choosing whether the first two days start with foursomes or fourballs, which is a strategic advantage that can help with momentum.
Can Europe do It?
Rory McIlroy and his eleven teammates can expect a hostile “welcome” and a course designed to suit their opponents. They also know that in terms of world rankings, they are facing a better side. Both of those factors are nothing new, and Europe has tended to rely on their superior team spirit to see them through.
The US have worked on that in recent times, and as dominant as Scottie Scheffler is, he is perhaps more of a team player than Tiger Woods, whose brilliance didn’t always seem to work in America’s favour in the past.
Perhaps what has made home advantage so crucial over the past 20 years or so is that the teams are relatively even. With little between them for much of the Europe-versus-USA era, the extra adrenaline provided by vocal home support and the morale boost it brings has been enough to tip things in the way of the hosts.
There are two main reasons to think that Europe might have what it takes to overcome the obstacles in their way, though. First, in Luke Donald, they have a brilliant, proven captain and a man with just about the best Ryder Cup record going. He was superb two years ago in Rome and widely praised by players and pundits. He won four out of four Ryder Cups as a player and then added to that as skipper. He won 70% of the available points as a player, a record that puts him up there with the best of the best.
Second, Europe has a clear edge in experience. That starts with the captain, who should be even better two years on. It extends to his players, eleven of whom took part in Rome two years ago. In contrast, the US features a new captain and four rookies.
The US are the rightful favourites, but we think Donald’s dynamic dozen can deliver!